Ian McMillin's Blog

After going perfect on my curling picks, we will see if I can stay hot betting on the Super Bowl. Instead of listing every bet I have, I figured that it would be more informative to highlight some of my favorite plays for tomorrow’s game. 

All of the bets you are about to see use DraftKings odds. I was shocked to see they stayed in business after going perfect on curling. If you work in marketing at a gambling company, I am open to hearing sponsorship pitches. 

Play of the Day: Cooper Kupp Anytime TD +250 

This was a tough choice, as there were really three picks that I liked above the others. It is hard to pick a Seahawk other than JSN or Kenneth Walker, but the Patriots’ defense is so good that I think the Seahawks will have to put the ball in other guys’ hands, especially in the red zone. In the regular season, Kupp averaged 1 TD per every 23.5 receptions — he has bumped that up to 1 TD per every 9 receptions in the postseason. In fairness, his postseason sample size is far more limited, but there are two other factors that make me think that Kupp will have increased targets this game. 

The first factor can be summed up in two words: Christian Gonzalez. The Patriots’ corner has been elite this year and should give JSN more trouble than he is used to. Do I expect him to completely shut down the best WR in the league? No, but every play that JSN struggles on is another play where the Seahawks will have to look elsewhere in the passing game. 

The second factor is that this is now Kupp’s third Super Bowl appearance, with one Super Bowl MVP. He is used to playing this late into the season, and I have few worries about him letting the pressure of this game get to him when it matters. I am optimistic that the Seahawks’ coaching staff shares this belief and will scheme up something for Kupp in the red zone, but don’t be surprised if it takes until the fourth quarter. 

Honorable Mentions

#1: Hunter Henry Anytime TD +230

The Seattle Seahawks actually allow the fifth most receptions to Tight Ends in the league, while also allowing the second fewest receiving yards to WRs. Seattle also boasts a stout run defense, allowing the fewest RB TDs and the third fewest yards.

This sets up nicely for Hunter Henry, who has been quiet in his last two games, but had a very respectable 3 receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown vs the Chargers in the Wild Card. I like him to get some red zone targets and punch one in for New England. 

#2: Drake Maye Under 223.5 Passing Yards

Maye has been super volatile with his passing totals in the playoffs. I think that New England will play methodically and use as much clock as possible when they have the ball. Maye can go under and still have a good game, but I just don’t see the volume being there, unless the Pats find themselves down by multiple scores in the fourth and are forced to throw the ball and play fast. 

#3: Andy Borregales to Make a 50+ Yard Field Goal +260

I think that the Patriots’ offense will have to work through some initial adversity against the Seahawks’ defense and will be incentivized to attempt some long field goals. Borregales has gone 4-for-5 on the season from 50+, and while I wish that there was more volume, I think that these are generous odds. I also like Borregales’ over of 6.5 kicking points in addition to this pick. 

The “Why Not” Bets

Brady Russell Anytime TD +5500

I am not the first to make this pick, but it’s an awesome bet. Not only is it a fullback touchdown, but the guy’s name is Brady Russell. Those are probably the two most accomplished surnames in Boston sports history, making a Brady Russell touchdown even more awesome. 

Seattle D/ST Anytime TD +400

This one almost made it to the honorable mentions, but it’s really more of a gut feeling pick than anything. If New England has the ball deep in their own field, watch out for a scoop and score from Seattle’s defense. 

Cooper Kupp Most Receiving Yards +1100

The same logic from before applies here. I think that the odds are way too juicy to pass up. 

Who Will Win?

I think that the Seahawks get it done. As per usual, the point spread is tricky at -4.5. I think that this will be a low-scoring game, with the Patriots narrowly covering by a half point on a late score. Seattle is just too good on paper for me to pick against their moneyline, and if Darnold can stay mistake-free, then I think that their defense will hold off the Pats enough to secure a win. Go ahead and add Seattle to Win by 1-6 @ +275 as my final pick of this blog. 

We will be back to covering the Olympics next week. Maybe some figure skating bets? We will have to see.